BRIEFING

18/09/15
Today's analyses
Monetary policy »

When will Fed raise rates

Update 18.09.2015
Greek crisis »

Tsipras could lose power in Greece

Prospects 18.09.2015
Parliamentary elections 2015 »

Razem battles for leftist votes

Institution 18.09.2015
Reports »

OECD on computers and students, Deloitte on the defence industry

Overview 18.09.2015
Defence procurement »

How PGZ wants to take PLN 60 billion

Strategy 08.09.2015
See all
Economic highlights

Fed decides not to raise rates. Interest rates in the US remained at 0-0.25 per cent. Worse inflation forecasts led to the postponement of the first rate hike in nine years. According to the Fed's statement, 13 out of 17 FOMC members still wants to launch the cycle of rate hikes before the end of the year; in our view, it will begin in December. Following the decision, investors bought bonds and sold the dollar; the yield on two-year debt securities fell by 0.12 percentage points, and the dollar lost 1 cent against the euro. For more on the Fed's decision, see our analysis. Monetary policy »

PiS considering third type of bank tax. The party is analysing the possibility of introducing a tax on liabilities like in Britain, PI has found out. The tax would apply to liabilities minus core Tier1 capital, guaranteed deposits, and liabilities from operations on government bonds and derivatives. This is a better solution than the tax on assets ; it will damage banks less and encourage them to obtain stable and secure financing. Banks would also have the possibility to reduce the tax by the cost of converting FX loans. For more on the solutions proposed by PiS, see our analysis. Banks »

ARP to take control over Przewozy Regionalne on September 30. The Industrial Development Agency (ARP) will capitalise the railway carrier by PLN 770 million. This will give the state-owned agency a 51 per cent stake in Przewozy Regionalne. On that day, the carrier is to pay off all its debt to PKP group companies. The restructuring planned for coming years is to cut the company's costs by PLN 200 million. A PLN 500 million renewal of its trains is also planned. Przewozy has not ruled out selling some of its regional divisions to voivodeships. Rail »

Israeli Elbit to provide PGZ with drone technology. The agreement between Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa and Elbit Systems envisages Poland producing the Hermes 450 drone, equipped with an electro-optical head, radar for observing the Earth and weapons. The army will be offered the drones within the Gryf procurement programme. Hermes is one of the best-known constructions of this kind. In the tender, it will compete against British Watchkeeper, which is based on the same construction. On PGZ's strategy, see our analysis. Defence procurement »

Promotions and resignations
  • Ilony Weiss was reappointed as chair of the management board at ABC Data S.A. (IT sector).
  • Piotr Kazimierski became chairman of the management board at Baltona S.A. (duty-free shops). Piotr Wilczyński was dismissed from it.
Political highlights

PiS attacks Lewandowski. PiS has released the first video clip in its "All Ewa Kopacz's people" series, in which it reminds voters that her chief economic advisor was responsible for large-scale privatisations in the 1990s. PiS claims that Janusz Lewandowski cheated millions of Poles and that the programme was the greatest failure of post-communist Poland. The video suggests that Kopacz and the co-author of PO's programme could continue "selling state companies". PiS is reminding voters of the division between a Poland of solidarity and one of "liberal con men", symbolised by Lewandowski. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość »

Zbonikowski leaves PiS. The head of PiS's Toruń-Włocławek branch left the party following accusations that he had beaten his wife and stolen her phone. In addition, the prosecutor reportedly received an anonymous notification regarding moral transgressions. Łukasz Zbonikowski has denied the allegations, claiming that former PiS MP Zbigniew Girzyński denounced him. Despite leaving the party, Zbonikowski intends to stand for parliament, and PiS cannot remove him from its election list, which has already been registered. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość »

EU summit on refugees on September 23. EurCou President Donald Tusk has called another extraordinary summit on the refugee crisis. Several European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, wanted a summit. The day before it, EU MinInts will meet to draw up rules for allocating 120,000 refugees between member states. Yesterday, in fast-track mode, EurParl issued a positive opinion on the allocation system proposed by EurCom, which increases the pressure on the ministers. Migration crisis »

Russia protests against statue being taken down. Russia's MinFor has protested against the removal of a statue of Red Army general Ivan Chernyakhovsky in Pieniężno, Warmia. MinFor spokesperson Maria Zakharova claims that Poland is waging a war against statues of Soviet soldiers. The ministry has also summoned Poland's ambassador to Russia, Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. The decision to take down the statue of the Russian general, responsible for the fight against the Polish Home Army in Vilnius region, was made by the municipal authorities, backed by the Council for Preserving the Memory of Struggle and Martyrdom. Russia »

Visits and appointments
  • President Andrzej Duda will visit Mazowsze voivodeship, where he will meet farmers in Olszanka.
  • Deputy PM, MinEco Janusz Piechociński will meet with EU Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström.
  • MinFin Mateusz Szczurek and European Investment Bank governor Werner Hoyer will sign a loan agreement for financing science and higher education.
  • Deputy MinEnv Marcin Korolec will attend a meeting of EU MinEnvs, who are to agree on an EU position ahead of the international climate conference in Paris.
  • Today's birthday: Renata Janik (PO MP) - 50.
    Saturday's birthdays: Mariusz Błaszczak (PiS MP) - 46, Zbigniew Kuźmiuk (PiS MEP) - 59, Konstanty Oświęcimski (PO MP) - 51, Bolesław Piecha (PiS MEP) - 61 and Jacek Saryusz-Wolski (PO MEP) - 67.
    Sunday's birthdays: Leszek Piechota (PO senator) - 57 and Jarosław Zieliński (PiS MP) - 55.
Press digest

FT: Labour party leader against Brexit. "Jeremy Corbyn on Thursday vowed unequivocally that Labour will fight to keep Britain in the EU, arguing that he sees membership as a means of imposing tougher regulations and a new tax on the City of London," write George Parker and Alex Barker in the Financial Times. According to the daily, the promise is a signal to established Labour party members who feared that the new leader could move away from Labour's pro-European stance and back Brexit. (page 1) Brexit »

E: Migration crisis undermining EU. "Suspending Schengen is just a sticking plaster for Europe's refugee crisis, which could persist for many years," writes The Economist. According to the daily, it will not prevent further waves of refugees from crossing Europe's borders. The situation requires a multi-pronged approach; from a ceasefire in Syria to creating an EU system for allocating refugees. However, the chances of this happening are slim. The intensification of the crisis will strengthen eurosceptic populists and increase the risk of Brexit, according to the E. Migration crisis »

Rz: NIK head wants to defend himself in Sejm. "Krzysztof Kwiatkowski asked Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska for the possibility to defend himself against the General Prosecutor's accusations," writes Andrzej Stankiewicz in  Rzeczpospolita. The General Prosecutor's Office filed a motion to the Sejm to  waive the NIK chairman's immunity, accusing him of influencing the result of tenders. Kwiatkowski does not have the right to comment on the information in in the motion, but wants to defend himself in the Sejm. The Sejm speaker has not made a decision yet; it is not even known which Sejm's committee will issue an opinion on the motion. (page A7) Administration »

Rz: Timmermans on EurCom's ideas regarding refugees. "If we do not protect our borders more effectively, do not help unstable regions and support countries accepting refugees, such as Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, any allocation system will not make sense because new people will be still coming to Europe," vice-president of EurCom Frans Timmermans told Anna Słojewska at Rzeczpospolita. " EurCom proposes to create a list of safe countries. We also need to register refugees more effectively; the process is currently too long. People share their experience, buy false passports and change their locations." (page A10) Migration crisis »

GW: Once again, PiS inspired by Orbán. "PiS politicians, fascinated by the anti-EU course of the Hungarian PM's policies, have forgotten his pro-Russian policy," writes Witold Gadomski in  Gazeta Wyborcza. PiS criticised Viktor Orbán, when he met with Vladimir Putin in February. However, now the party presents him as the person protecting national interests amid the refugees crisis. Being inspired by Orbán is dangerous because he is balancing between the EU and Russia. PiS is anti-Russian, so the party can only refer to Orbán's anti-EU views, which could be catastrophic, GW adds. (page 4)  Prawo i Sprawiedliwość »

GW: Marcin Idzik becomes CEO of EuRoPol Gaz. "Former deputy MinDef and CEO of armaments company Polski Holding Obronny (formerly Bumar) Marcin Idzik has become CEO of the Polish-Russian company managing the transit Yamal gas pipeline," writes Andrzej Kublik in  Gazeta Wyborcza. Idzik was nominated at EuRoPol Gaz's general meeting of shareholders. PGNiG proposed the candidate, without stating why it chose someone with no experience in the gas sector to head the strategic company dealing with Gazprom. MinTrea declined to comment on the nomination. (page 27) Gas »

PB: Polska Grupa Górnicza instead of Nowa KW. "Mines owned by Kompania Węglowa will be rescued under a new name," writes Magdalena Graniszewska in Puls Biznesu. The new company, Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG), will be the pillar of the plan to save the insolvent Kompania Węglowa and the recipient of the 11 coal mines believed to have potential. A competition to select PGG's management board will be announced next week. It can be assumed that Kompania's present board, headed by Krzysztof Sędzikowski, will take part. (page 8) Coal »